Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 176 JetBlue Flight history →	MSY 10:15	JFK 14:17	27%	8%	1.1%	82%
DL 1387 Delta Flight history →	MSY 18:57	JFK 22:52	30%	8%	2.2%	84%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034	5h 40m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 00m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575	8h 01m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790	1h 30m Detroit	DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934	6h 10m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	7h 47m	97%	71%
American Details →	MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40AA 468	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:50 → JFK 14:34AA 1766	7h 44m	95%	70%
American Details →	MSY 07:01 → CLT 10:03AA 424	1h 28m Charlotte	CLT 11:31 → JFK 13:22AA 374	5h 21m	91%	67%
American Details →	MSY 07:42 → DFW 09:35AA 1470	3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:11 → JFK 17:47AA 1058	9h 05m	97%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424	50m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575	4h 55m	73%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON