Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2965 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 2965 MSY 06:00 → LAS 07:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1707 MSY 20:53 → LAS 22:48 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2965 Southwest	MSY 06:00	LAS 07:59	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2154 Southwest	MSY 10:11	LAS 11:58	20%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3117 Southwest	MSY 14:05	LAS 15:50	38%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 3118 Southwest	MSY 19:55	LAS 21:54	42%	10%	1.2%	no record
F9 1707 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 20:53	LAS 22:48	43%	14%	2.3%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON