Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2085 at 08:03 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 2085 MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 3716 MSY 15:05 → LAX 17:08 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2085 Delta Flight history →	MSY 08:03	LAX 10:00	14%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 872 Delta	MSY 14:48	LAX 16:51	26%	4%	1.0%	no record
DL 2096 Delta Flight history →	MSY 17:20	LAX 19:18	34%	5%	1.2%	69%
WN 3716 Southwest	MSY 15:05	LAX 17:08	39%	7%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON