Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3285 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3285 MSY 07:00 → MCO 09:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MX 2511 MSY 15:46 → MCO 18:40 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3285 Southwest	MSY 07:00	MCO 09:57	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2752 Southwest	MSY 10:10	MCO 13:06	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
F9 3554 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 19:55	MCO 22:54	28%	17%	3.2%	67%
WN 2784 Southwest	MSY 14:35	MCO 17:31	33%	12%	1.9%	no record
WN 3159 Southwest	MSY 18:55	MCO 21:51	33%	13%	1.9%	no record
MX 2511 Breeze	MSY 15:46	MCO 18:40	35%	12%	3.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON