Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 908 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 908 MSY 05:02 → MDW 07:24 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3131 MSY 18:15 → MDW 20:34 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 908 Southwest	MSY 05:02	MDW 07:24	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4617 Southwest	MSY 10:00	MDW 12:22	12%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 447 Southwest	MSY 13:50	MDW 16:12	27%	8%	6.2%	no record
WN 3131 Southwest	MSY 18:15	MDW 20:34	42%	12%	4.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON