Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2695 Delta Flight history →	MSY 16:30	MSP 19:15	21%	5%	1.7%	84%
SY 1804 Sun Country	MSY 15:10	MSP 18:10	22%	7%	2.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	6h 10m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	7h 30m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	6h 53m	98%	78%
United Details →	MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376	3h 37m Denver	DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732	8h 42m	100%	77%
American Details →	MSY 09:00 → CLT 12:01AA 2287	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 15:09 → MSP 16:59AA 2140	7h 59m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	7h 44m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00DL 2085	1h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	8h 47m	89%	71%
United Details →	MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105	3h 36m Houston	IAH 14:48 → MSP 17:49UA 1818	7h 56m	98%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSY 14:19 → ORD 17:02UA 1301	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 18:23 → MSP 19:52UA 2865	5h 33m	72%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON