Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2844 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–46%.

Safest bet that day UA 2844 MSY 06:52 → ORD 09:24 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5375 MSY 17:39 → ORD 20:18 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2844 United	MSY 06:52	ORD 09:24	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3229 American	MSY 06:11	ORD 09:00	15%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 1677 United Flight history →	MSY 10:28	ORD 12:59	21%	7%	0.9%	83%
AA 4040 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSY 11:41	ORD 14:22	31%	9%	2.4%	81%worse than usual
UA 1301 United Flight history →	MSY 14:19	ORD 17:02	39%	21%	1.9%	66%
OO 5375 SkyWest	MSY 17:39	ORD 20:18	46%	26%	4.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON