Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 716 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 716 MSY 05:58 → PHL 09:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2061 MSY 16:41 → PHL 20:39 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 716 American	MSY 05:58	PHL 09:57	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2534 American	MSY 11:07	PHL 15:05	19%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2061 American Flight history →	MSY 16:41	PHL 20:39	30%	11%	1.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON