tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 11:55, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3133 Southwest MSY 06:20 PHX 07:46 7% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 3499 Southwest MSY 19:50 PHX 21:16 41% 11% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 43m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00DL 2085 3h 46m Los Angeles LAX 13:46 → PHX 15:21DL 3894 · flown by SkyWest 9h 18m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → PHX 14:18DL 366 8h 50m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → MSY 11:37 → IAD 15:21UA 2497 2h 29m Dulles IAD 17:50 → PHX 19:46UA 1938 10h 09m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 01m Houston IAH 14:13 → PHX 15:03UA 1798 7h 10m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40AA 468 1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:37 → PHX 10:16AA 2905 6h 26m 93% 73%
DeltaDetails → MSY 17:20 → LAX 19:18DL 2096 3h 17m Los Angeles LAX 22:35 → PHX 00:06 +1DL 3827 · flown by SkyWest 8h 46m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → MSY 11:55 → IAH 13:13UA 2253 3h 34m Houston IAH 16:47 → PHX 17:40UA 1478 7h 45m 100% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MSY 11:41 → ORD 14:22AA 4040 · flown by Envoy 1h 00m Chicago ORD 15:22 → PHX 17:05AA 2624 7h 24m 69% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON