tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 11:55, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4855 Southwest MSY 18:40 SAN 20:33 52% 11% 1.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 8h 48m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:00 → IAD 11:33UA 1392 1h 07m Dulles IAD 12:40 → SAN 15:03UA 2163 9h 03m 93% 75%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:36DL 843 8h 16m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 3h 41m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 8h 21m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → MSY 16:30 → MSP 19:15DL 2695 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 21:47 → SAN 23:30DL 2146 9h 00m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → MSY 11:37 → IAD 15:21UA 2497 2h 39m Dulles IAD 18:00 → SAN 20:23UA 2054 10h 46m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:12DL 924 9h 59m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → MSY 17:20 → LAX 19:18DL 2096 3h 27m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 8h 22m 98% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:21 → IAH 15:40UA 2296 52m Houston IAH 16:32 → SAN 18:05UA 2798 5h 44m 71% 48%
UnitedDetails → MSY 10:28 → ORD 12:59UA 1677 47m Chicago ORD 13:46 → SAN 16:08UA 559 7h 40m 61% 39%
AmericanDetails → MSY 11:41 → ORD 14:22AA 4040 · flown by Envoy 46m Chicago ORD 15:08 → SAN 17:25AA 1543 7h 44m 64% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON