tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3137 at 13:35, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3137 Southwest MSY 13:35 SAT 15:18 18% 4% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 18m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 1h 20m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 3h 46m 91% 80%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 40m Houston IAH 14:52 → SAT 16:12UA 2030 6h 19m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 5h 57m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465 6h 37m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40AA 468 2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:34 → SAT 11:51AA 413 6h 01m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → MSY 07:42 → DFW 09:35AA 1470 2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:24 → SAT 13:47AA 2768 6h 05m 96% 69%
AmericanDetails → MSY 09:53 → DFW 11:32AA 2157 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:51 → SAT 15:11AA 791 5h 18m 93% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MSY 11:41 → ORD 14:22AA 4040 · flown by Envoy 51m Chicago ORD 15:13 → SAT 18:13AA 4176 · flown by Envoy 6h 32m 69% 42%
UnitedDetails → MSY 10:28 → ORD 12:59UA 1677 47m Chicago ORD 13:46 → SAT 16:50UA 1252 6h 22m 61% 40%
AmericanDetails → MSY 19:38 → DFW 21:17AA 2291 1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:50 → SAT 23:58AA 1599 4h 20m 71% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON