Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 08:04, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 569 Alaska Flight history →	MSY 17:19	SEA 20:25	36%	9%	1.3%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	8h 53m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 30m	100%	81%
United Details →	MSY 08:00 → IAD 11:33UA 1392	1h 27m Dulles	IAD 13:00 → SEA 15:32UA 1824	9h 32m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	MSY 16:30 → MSP 19:15DL 2695	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	9h 28m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	9h 36m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790	1h 58m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	9h 23m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00DL 2085	2h 09m Los Angeles	LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045	8h 52m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 31m	98%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSY 19:38 → DFW 21:17AA 2291	1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487	7h 19m	67%	36%
United Details →	MSY 17:59 → DEN 20:21UA 2216	49m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10UA 2651	7h 11m	52%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON