tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 09:53, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1973 United Flight history → MSY 08:02 SFO 10:56 21% 6% 0.7% 75%
UA 2421 United MSY 14:47 SFO 17:25 30% 9% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:00 → IAD 11:33UA 1392 3h 18m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 11h 38m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → MSY 11:37 → IAD 15:21UA 2497 3h 27m Dulles IAD 18:48 → SFO 21:42UA 2832 12h 05m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 22m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 13m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → MSY 07:01 → CLT 10:03AA 424 2h 27m Charlotte CLT 12:30 → SFO 14:57AA 1489 9h 56m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → MSY 16:30 → MSP 19:15DL 2695 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089 9h 16m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → MSY 11:55 → IAH 13:13UA 2253 2h 17m Houston IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 7h 40m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376 3h 20m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 9h 05m 99% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSY 17:59 → DEN 20:21UA 2216 49m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 6h 57m 52% 29%
DeltaDetails → MSY 17:20 → LAX 19:18DL 2096 50m Los Angeles LAX 20:08 → SFO 21:32DL 1693 6h 12m 52% 24%
AmericanDetails → MSY 19:38 → DFW 21:17AA 2291 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:09 → SFO 00:05 +1AA 2775 6h 27m 47% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON