tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 736 at 13:30, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 736 Delta Flight history → MSY 13:30 SLC 16:01 21% 5% 0.9% 92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 7h 50m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 13m Houston IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 7h 47m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 30m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00DL 2085 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 13:10 → SLC 16:03DL 1647 9h 00m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423 9h 23m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376 1h 35m Denver DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963 6h 09m 92% 70%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 1h 26m Houston IAH 09:45 → SLC 11:58UA 2242 5h 58m 91% 69%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 9h 05m 98% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424 50m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423 6h 17m 73% 53%
FrontierDetails → MSY 10:42 → DEN 12:40F9 4561 58m Denver DEN 13:38 → SLC 15:17F9 3861 5h 35m 73% 48%
AmericanDetails → MSY 19:38 → DFW 21:17AA 2291 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:20 → SLC 00:03 +1AA 2507 5h 25m 60% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON