Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978	5h 32m	96%	84%
American Details →	MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296	2h 06m Charlotte	CLT 10:04 → CLE 11:41AA 1294	4h 50m	97%	80%
American Details →	MYR 11:19 → PHL 13:08AA 5848 · flown by Piedmont	2h 18m Philadelphia	PHL 15:26 → CLE 17:13AA 5581 · flown by PSA	5h 54m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → CLE 20:42DL 2150	6h 51m	96%	70%
American Details →	MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	3h 09m Charlotte	CLT 17:26 → CLE 19:08AA 1244	6h 07m	100%	67%
American Details →	MYR 13:27 → PHL 15:14AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont	2h 01m Philadelphia	PHL 17:15 → CLE 19:06AA 5862 · flown by Piedmont	5h 39m	89%	65%
Delta Details →	MYR 19:59 → ATL 21:31DL 1093	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → CLE 00:49 +1DL 1320	4h 50m	88%	63%
American Details →	MYR 11:21 → CLT 12:28AA 2431	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 13:32 → CLE 15:12AA 1562	3h 51m	83%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MYR 18:24 → CLT 19:32AA 2943	1h 12m Charlotte	CLT 20:44 → CLE 22:21AA 3146	3h 57m	72%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON