tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4428 Republic MYR 12:06 DCA 13:43 11% 4% 1.6% no record
YX 4434 Republic MYR 19:27 DCA 21:18 21% 9% 5.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 27m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296 1h 15m Charlotte CLT 09:13 → DCA 10:41AA 3043 3h 50m 92% 77%
DeltaDetails → MYR 12:40 → BOS 14:51DL 3087 2h 59m Boston BOS 17:50 → DCA 19:56DL 5667 · flown by Republic 7h 16m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145 3h 47m Detroit DTW 17:18 → DCA 18:59DL 2030 7h 25m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850 5h 48m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 2h 44m Charlotte CLT 17:01 → DCA 18:45AA 2002 5h 44m 100% 67%
AmericanDetails → MYR 11:19 → PHL 13:08AA 5848 · flown by Piedmont 2h 29m Philadelphia PHL 15:37 → DCA 16:50AA 5363 · flown by PSA 5h 31m 96% 65%
DeltaDetails → MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 4h 46m 92% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MYR 18:24 → CLT 19:32AA 2943 47m Charlotte CLT 20:19 → DCA 21:49AA 2432 3h 25m 67% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON