Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 1145 at 11:34, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1145 Delta Flight history →	MYR 11:34	DTW 13:31	11%	4%	0.9%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 56m	98%	83%
American Details →	MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296	3h 21m Charlotte	CLT 11:19 → DTW 13:06AA 1683	6h 15m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	5h 45m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	6h 22m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	MYR 12:40 → BOS 14:51DL 3087	2h 24m Boston	BOS 17:15 → DTW 19:39DL 1432	6h 59m	100%	72%
American Details →	MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	3h 21m Charlotte	CLT 17:38 → DTW 19:35AA 2066	6h 34m	100%	69%
Delta Details →	MYR 19:59 → ATL 21:31DL 1093	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	5h 00m	88%	66%
American Details →	MYR 18:45 → PHL 20:34AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont	1h 38m Philadelphia	PHL 22:12 → DTW 00:07 +1AA 5418 · flown by PSA	5h 22m	84%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MYR 18:24 → CLT 19:32AA 2943	1h 14m Charlotte	CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419	4h 10m	72%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON