Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1342 at 10:35 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1342 MYR 10:35 → EWR 12:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3714 MYR 18:50 → EWR 20:59 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1342 United	MYR 10:35	EWR 12:30	15%	7%	1.5%	no record
YX 3489 Republic	MYR 12:29	EWR 14:31	19%	6%	2.8%	no record
UA 3714 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MYR 18:50	EWR 20:59	27%	11%	4.1%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON