Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4324 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	MYR 10:34	IAD 12:11	18%	7%	0.0%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → IAD 11:41DL 1444	5h 41m	97%	85%
American Details →	MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	2h 31m Charlotte	CLT 16:48 → IAD 18:28AA 5447 · flown by PSA	5h 27m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	1h 37m Detroit	DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787	5h 07m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → IAD 17:12DL 1695	5h 30m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:31DL 2902	4h 40m	92%	69%
American Details →	MYR 18:24 → CLT 19:32AA 2943	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 22:35 → IAD 00:07 +1AA 2608	5h 43m	89%	66%
Delta Details →	MYR 19:59 → ATL 21:31DL 1093	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	4h 42m	87%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MYR 18:50 → EWR 20:59UA 3714 · flown by Republic	51m Newark	EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784	4h 29m	69%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON