tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 6h 42m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524 5h 08m 95% 74%
AmericanDetails → MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296 1h 22m Charlotte CLT 09:20 → LGA 11:15AA 1150 4h 24m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → MYR 12:40 → BOS 14:51DL 3087 3h 09m Boston BOS 18:00 → LGA 19:34DL 5831 · flown by Republic 6h 54m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 6h 36m 95% 70%
AmericanDetails → MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 1h 00m Charlotte CLT 15:17 → LGA 17:15AA 1942 4h 14m 100% 64%
AmericanDetails → MYR 18:24 → CLT 19:32AA 2943 2h 17m Charlotte CLT 21:49 → LGA 23:39AA 2031 5h 15m 89% 60%
AmericanDetails → MYR 11:21 → CLT 12:28AA 2431 53m Charlotte CLT 13:21 → LGA 15:24AA 2927 4h 03m 83% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON