Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	6h 30m	97%	85%
American Details →	MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 11:17 → MSP 12:59AA 1671	7h 08m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	MYR 12:40 → BOS 14:51DL 3087	3h 04m Boston	BOS 17:55 → MSP 20:21DL 1098	8h 41m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	2h 49m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	6h 38m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	5h 24m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	5h 27m	91%	68%
Delta Details →	MYR 19:59 → ATL 21:31DL 1093	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	5h 40m	88%	67%
American Details →	MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	52m Charlotte	CLT 15:09 → MSP 16:59AA 2140	4h 58m	86%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MYR 18:50 → EWR 20:59UA 3714 · flown by Republic	56m Newark	EWR 21:55 → MSP 23:59UA 1331	6h 09m	71%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON