Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 677 at 17:03, with a 43% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 677 United	MYR 17:03	ORD 18:27	43%	19%	2.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147	5h 10m	95%	80%
American Details →	MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296	1h 44m Charlotte	CLT 09:42 → ORD 11:00AA 1038	5h 09m	97%	77%
United Details →	MYR 10:34 → IAD 12:11UA 4324 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 04m Dulles	IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331	4h 55m	82%	59%
American Details →	MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	1h 59m Charlotte	CLT 16:16 → ORD 17:39AA 536	5h 38m	100%	58%
Delta Details →	MYR 19:59 → ATL 21:31DL 1093	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	4h 54m	84%	58%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738	6h 30m	99%	58%
American Details →	MYR 18:24 → CLT 19:32AA 2943	3h 09m Charlotte	CLT 22:41 → ORD 23:44AA 627	6h 20m	89%	54%
Delta Details →	MYR 12:40 → BOS 14:51DL 3087	1h 24m Boston	BOS 16:15 → ORD 18:20DL 2646	6h 40m	85%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON