tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching St Louis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 4h 43m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145 3h 14m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 6h 50m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → STL 12:05AA 3096 6h 14m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 15:16 → STL 16:06DL 543 5h 24m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 19:14 → STL 20:04DL 2833 7h 13m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → MYR 11:19 → PHL 13:08AA 5848 · flown by Piedmont 2h 18m Philadelphia PHL 15:26 → STL 17:01AA 2571 6h 42m 96% 70%
DeltaDetails → MYR 19:59 → ATL 21:31DL 1093 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 4h 54m 90% 68%
AmericanDetails → MYR 18:24 → CLT 19:32AA 2943 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 22:56 → STL 23:58AA 459 6h 34m 89% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON