Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 37 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1346 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 1346 LGA 06:30 → DAL 09:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2840 EWR 18:15 → DFW 21:00 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

WN 1346 Southwest LGA 06:30 DAL 09:12 5% 1% 1.1% no record
AA 1597 American Flight history → LGA 06:30 DFW 09:23 7% 4% 2.2% 89%
AA 2728 American Flight history → EWR 05:51 DFW 08:40 8% 5% 1.9% 95%
UA 1494 United Flight history → EWR 06:57 DFW 09:39 8% 5% 1.1% 93%
AA 3289 American Flight history → LGA 07:30 DFW 10:23 12% 5% 2.2% 77%
AA 1987 American Flight history → LGA 08:35 DFW 11:25 12% 6% 1.9% 81%
DL 856 Delta Flight history → LGA 09:30 DFW 12:09 14% 5% 1.3% 82%
AA 2234 American Flight history → JFK 08:15 DFW 11:11 14% 5% 1.0% 85%
AA 1303 American Flight history → EWR 08:00 DFW 10:51 14% 7% 1.3% 85%
DL 869 Delta Flight history → LGA 12:29 DFW 15:10 17% 7% 1.3% 75%
AA 2088 American Flight history → LGA 11:07 DFW 13:51 17% 7% 1.8% 85%
AA 1880 American JFK 11:31 DFW 14:22 17% 6% 1.0% no record
WN 2541 Southwest LGA 12:35 DAL 15:19 19% 6% 1.0% no record
AA 3113 American LGA 10:08 DFW 12:52 20% 7% 1.8% no record
AA 1796 American Flight history → EWR 12:28 DFW 15:19 21% 11% 1.3% 75%
AA 1609 American Flight history → LGA 13:08 DFW 15:58 21% 8% 1.8% 71%
UA 1396 United EWR 13:02 DFW 15:47 23% 11% 0.9% no record
DL 846 Delta Flight history → LGA 15:00 DFW 18:01 24% 11% 1.3% 65%
AA 1056 American Flight history → LGA 14:00 DFW 17:05 25% 10% 1.8% 65%
AA 1608 American Flight history → LGA 16:00 DFW 19:15 26% 10% 2.0% 63%
AA 2178 American LGA 15:15 DFW 18:00 27% 10% 1.8% no record
F9 2471 Frontier Flight history → EWR 13:35 DFW 16:27 28% 13% 1.5% 74%
DL 352 Delta Flight history → LGA 18:55 DFW 22:02 28% 13% 1.5% 55%
UA 1590 United Flight history → EWR 15:30 DFW 18:28 29% 16% 1.1% 71%
AA 1953 American Flight history → JFK 14:42 DFW 17:44 29% 8% 1.1% 69%
AA 2327 American Flight history → LGA 17:28 DFW 20:11 32% 12% 1.7% 25%
WN 2432 Southwest LGA 17:38 DAL 20:22 33% 12% 1.0% no record
AA 2092 American Flight history → LGA 20:16 DFW 22:58 33% 12% 1.9% 59%
DL 496 Delta Flight history → JFK 17:55 DFW 21:07 34% 11% 1.3% 71%
WN 4844 Southwest LGA 20:05 DAL 22:49 35% 13% 1.1% no record
AA 2238 American LGA 18:56 DFW 21:39 36% 13% 2.2% no record
AA 1043 American Flight history → LGA 18:21 DFW 21:05 36% 13% 2.2% 61%
F9 3423 Frontier Flight history → LGA 20:29 DFW 23:12 38% 19% 3.7% 63%
UA 1277 United EWR 20:59 DFW 23:43 40% 17% 1.2% no record
AA 606 American Flight history → JFK 18:51 DFW 21:36 41% 12% 1.4% 60%
AA 1810 American Flight history → EWR 17:10 DFW 20:10 41% 19% 1.9% 47%
UA 2840 United EWR 18:15 DFW 21:00 44% 18% 1.1% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 55m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115 5h 19m 87% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON