tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 50 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2423 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–48%.

Safest bet that day UA 2423 EWR 06:42 → SNA 09:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 353 EWR 18:45 → LAX 21:36 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 2423 United Flight history → EWR 06:42 SNA 09:35 9% 2% 0.7% 94%
AA 171 American Flight history → JFK 06:00 LAX 09:01 11% 3% 1.0% 89%
UA 2434 United Flight history → EWR 06:00 LAX 08:53 12% 3% 0.8% 79%
B6 123 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 06:00 LAX 08:49 13% 3% 0.9% 88%
AA 33 American Flight history → JFK 07:05 LAX 10:07 14% 3% 0.9% 90%
DL 742 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:00 LAX 09:55 14% 3% 0.7% 78%
AA 2459 American Flight history → JFK 08:00 SNA 10:44 15% 3% 0.7% 91%
DL 713 Delta Flight history → JFK 08:00 LAX 10:58 16% 3% 0.7% 78%
AA 1 American Flight history → JFK 09:00 LAX 11:58 16% 4% 0.9% 87%
DL 403 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:35 SNA 10:28 16% 3% 1.0% 84%
AA 3 American Flight history → JFK 11:00 LAX 13:58 16% 4% 1.0% 85%
B6 523 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 07:06 LAX 10:08 17% 4% 0.9% 83%
DL 773 Delta Flight history → JFK 09:00 LAX 11:54 17% 4% 0.7% 81%
B6 223 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 09:37 LAX 12:40 17% 5% 0.9% 83%
DL 1905 Delta JFK 11:05 LAX 13:49 18% 4% 0.7% no record
B6 323 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:30 LAX 11:25 19% 5% 0.9% 81%
UA 2445 United Flight history → EWR 07:00 LAX 09:37 20% 4% 0.8% 81%
B6 423 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 13:05 LAX 16:02 20% 8% 0.9% 72%
B6 1573 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 07:00 LAX 09:49 20% 4% 0.8% 76%
UA 2679 United Flight history → EWR 10:45 LAX 13:41 22% 7% 0.8% 78%
UA 2692 United Flight history → EWR 09:15 LAX 11:53 22% 5% 0.8% 69%
DL 738 Delta Flight history → JFK 16:48 LAX 19:37 23% 7% 0.7% 77%
UA 212 United Flight history → EWR 12:00 LAX 14:38 23% 8% 0.8% 78%
AA 255 American Flight history → JFK 14:40 LAX 17:48 23% 5% 0.9% 81%
UA 2477 United EWR 14:41 SNA 17:37 25% 8% 0.7% no record
DL 707 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:54 LAX 18:41 26% 7% 0.7% 75%
B6 623 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 16:37 LAX 19:43 26% 8% 1.1% 74%
AA 341 American Flight history → JFK 15:40 LAX 18:48 26% 7% 0.9% 77%
UA 2191 United Flight history → EWR 14:15 LAX 17:13 27% 10% 0.8% 78%
B6 1523 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 15:15 LAX 18:16 28% 9% 1.0% 71%
UA 1690 United Flight history → EWR 17:05 SNA 20:11 28% 7% 0.7% 87%worse than usual
DL 747 Delta Flight history → JFK 17:41 LAX 20:35 29% 7% 0.7% 81%
UA 1355 United EWR 16:44 LAX 19:44 30% 11% 0.8% no record
B6 358 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 16:55 BUR 20:14 30% 12% 1.7% 71%
AA 306 American Flight history → JFK 17:00 LAX 20:19 31% 7% 1.0% 83%worse than usual
UA 2238 United Flight history → EWR 16:00 LAX 18:42 32% 11% 0.8% 70%
DL 1915 Delta JFK 18:57 LAX 21:49 33% 9% 0.7% no record
AA 300 American Flight history → JFK 21:30 LAX 00:54 33% 8% 1.2% 73%
DL 752 Delta Flight history → JFK 20:20 LAX 23:38 34% 9% 0.7% 73%
B6 355 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 17:39 ONT 20:37 34% 11% 0.8% 62%
AA 117 American Flight history → JFK 20:00 LAX 23:24 34% 8% 1.0% 74%
AA 302 American Flight history → JFK 18:10 LAX 21:28 35% 7% 1.0% 76%worse than usual
B6 1023 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 18:11 LAX 21:18 36% 10% 1.0% 73%
UA 2641 United Flight history → EWR 17:30 LAX 20:40 37% 12% 0.7% 72%
AS 287 Alaska Flight history → EWR 19:29 LAX 22:40 38% 11% 0.9% 74%worse than usual
B6 923 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 21:40 LAX 00:51 38% 13% 1.2% 58%
B6 1223 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 20:54 LAX 00:01 40% 14% 1.2% 54%
UA 345 United EWR 20:15 LAX 23:09 47% 14% 0.8% no record
B6 2073 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 20:59 LAX 23:57 48% 15% 1.0% 68%worse than usual
UA 353 United Flight history → EWR 18:45 LAX 21:36 48% 14% 0.8% 68%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102 8h 10m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366 56m Dulles IAD 08:18 → LAX 10:36UA 1734 7h 36m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670 1h 17m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 8h 04m 98% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON