Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 36 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1164 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–52%.

Safest bet that day DL 1164 LGA 07:00 → MCO 09:43 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 1827 EWR 20:09 → MCO 22:54 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:43	7%	3%	1.2%	90%
UA 788 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	MCO 09:16	7%	2%	0.8%	96%
B6 927 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:04	MCO 08:47	8%	3%	1.3%	90%
B6 599 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:52	9%	4%	1.2%	89%
AA 3038 American	LGA 07:21	MCO 10:05	11%	4%	1.3%	no record
UA 411 United Flight history →	EWR 07:42	MCO 10:26	11%	4%	0.8%	98%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MCO 09:59	12%	3%	0.9%	84%
F9 1659 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 05:50	MCO 08:37	14%	5%	1.3%	83%
UA 486 United	EWR 09:13	MCO 12:04	14%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1739 United Flight history →	EWR 10:01	MCO 12:54	20%	6%	0.9%	76%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:49	MCO 14:42	20%	6%	2.6%	80%
UA 2396 United Flight history →	EWR 11:10	MCO 14:03	20%	8%	1.1%	87%
B6 883 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:40	MCO 10:27	21%	6%	1.0%	75%
B6 499 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 10:00	MCO 12:55	21%	9%	1.3%	65%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:27	MCO 14:17	21%	4%	1.1%	81%
DL 2019 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:53	MCO 12:51	21%	4%	0.9%	78%
B6 183 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:07	MCO 12:54	29%	8%	1.1%	81%worse than usual
B6 83 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:15	MCO 15:11	30%	12%	2.2%	69%
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCO 18:52	30%	12%	1.6%	62%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	EWR 14:05	MCO 17:03	31%	13%	1.0%	81%worse than usual
DL 1740 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:59	MCO 23:19	31%	9%	1.2%	67%
AA 1943 American Flight history →	LGA 15:00	MCO 17:51	33%	12%	1.7%	67%
UA 2345 United	EWR 14:05	MCO 16:50	33%	13%	1.0%	no record
UA 1190 United Flight history →	EWR 21:55	MCO 00:41	33%	13%	1.0%	73%
DL 2540 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCO 23:03	33%	13%	1.7%	59%
UA 1900 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	MCO 19:56	34%	17%	1.9%	77%worse than usual
B6 127 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 13:34	MCO 16:17	34%	14%	2.2%	75%
DL 2561 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:59	MCO 21:15	34%	12%	1.6%	68%
DL 1543 Delta	JFK 15:15	MCO 17:59	36%	9%	1.1%	no record
B6 399 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 14:29	MCO 17:28	37%	17%	1.9%	61%
UA 1268 United Flight history →	EWR 15:13	MCO 17:58	38%	16%	1.1%	79%worse than usual
B6 483 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:40	MCO 17:37	41%	16%	1.4%	60%
UA 1863 United	EWR 18:57	MCO 21:44	43%	17%	1.2%	no record
B6 699 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 20:59	MCO 23:52	47%	24%	1.9%	41%
B6 283 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:02	MCO 23:51	50%	18%	1.6%	62%worse than usual
B6 1827 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 20:09	MCO 22:54	52%	23%	2.1%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON