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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 67 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–52%.

Safest bet that day AA 1249 LGA 06:00 → MIA 09:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3016 EWR 18:32 → MIA 21:26 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

AA 1249 American Flight history → LGA 06:00 MIA 09:15 7% 3% 1.3% 94%
AA 1196 American Flight history → EWR 05:35 MIA 08:45 9% 3% 1.2% 95%
AA 655 American Flight history → JFK 05:55 MIA 09:12 9% 2% 1.0% 95%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:20 FLL 10:22 9% 3% 1.4% 81%
UA 1364 United Flight history → EWR 07:00 FLL 10:05 10% 3% 1.1% 92%
B6 1505 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 06:00 FLL 09:00 11% 4% 1.5% 82%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:00 FLL 10:07 12% 3% 1.2% 88%
DL 2347 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:10 MIA 10:19 12% 4% 2.3% 89%
AA 1530 American Flight history → LGA 07:00 MIA 10:15 13% 3% 2.3% 88%
B6 1 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 06:00 FLL 09:00 15% 4% 1.4% 85%
UA 1135 United EWR 06:57 MIA 09:54 15% 4% 1.8% no record
DL 1528 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:05 MIA 10:24 16% 3% 2.1% 86%
AA 970 American Flight history → LGA 08:00 MIA 11:15 17% 3% 2.2% 86%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history → LGA 10:55 FLL 13:54 18% 5% 1.5% 75%
AA 1152 American Flight history → EWR 08:00 MIA 11:10 19% 4% 2.1% 93%worse than usual
DL 305 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:14 FLL 14:24 20% 4% 1.4% 80%
AA 968 American LGA 08:00 FLL 11:01 20% 5% 3.4% no record
B6 1471 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 07:30 FLL 10:35 20% 6% 3.6% 82%
UA 2151 United EWR 08:56 FLL 12:10 21% 6% 2.3% no record
AA 2017 American Flight history → JFK 07:30 MIA 10:45 21% 4% 1.8% 85%
AA 3211 American Flight history → LGA 09:28 MIA 12:45 21% 5% 5.2% 76%
UA 2785 United Flight history → EWR 09:13 MIA 12:30 23% 5% 3.6% 97%worse than usual
DL 2308 Delta Flight history → LGA 19:29 FLL 22:52 23% 10% 1.6% 66%
UA 2759 United EWR 11:51 FLL 14:43 24% 8% 1.2% no record
B6 271 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 08:07 FLL 11:04 24% 7% 3.5% 80%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:30 FLL 18:54 25% 7% 1.5% 75%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history → LGA 16:30 FLL 19:56 25% 9% 1.5% 66%
UA 1998 United EWR 10:12 FLL 13:04 26% 7% 1.7% no record
DL 1414 Delta Flight history → JFK 19:58 FLL 23:28 26% 8% 1.5% 68%
DL 1428 Delta Flight history → JFK 19:55 MIA 23:37 28% 9% 1.6% 70%
UA 651 United Flight history → EWR 13:25 FLL 16:35 28% 8% 1.4% 81%
B6 1371 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 12:00 FLL 15:03 29% 11% 1.7% 61%
AA 2836 American LGA 16:13 FLL 19:29 29% 10% 2.1% no record
DL 1538 Delta Flight history → LGA 11:15 MIA 14:24 30% 8% 6.2% 77%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:08 MIA 14:22 30% 6% 5.6% 78%
B6 2201 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 12:30 FLL 15:40 31% 10% 1.7% 68%
AA 2378 American LGA 11:09 MIA 14:05 31% 8% 6.9% no record
B6 105 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 08:00 FLL 11:04 31% 8% 3.3% 72%
DL 2382 Delta Flight history → LGA 19:55 MIA 23:22 32% 14% 2.3% 59%
AA 688 American Flight history → JFK 10:54 MIA 13:56 32% 7% 5.5% 76%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history → LGA 14:59 MIA 18:30 33% 12% 2.0% 63%
UA 2295 United Flight history → EWR 11:32 MIA 14:39 33% 8% 4.9% 81%worse than usual
AA 605 American Flight history → LGA 13:02 MIA 15:58 34% 9% 5.5% 68%
B6 1601 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:20 FLL 11:19 34% 8% 3.4% 87%worse than usual
DL 2500 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:10 MIA 18:53 35% 9% 1.8% 72%
DL 1620 Delta Flight history → LGA 17:50 MIA 21:21 35% 14% 2.2% 58%
UA 2096 United EWR 17:42 FLL 20:34 35% 12% 1.5% no record
B6 471 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 15:40 FLL 18:53 36% 15% 1.9% 61%
AA 1922 American JFK 21:27 MIA 00:33 36% 9% 1.2% no record
AA 1801 American Flight history → EWR 12:33 MIA 15:41 37% 10% 5.0% 82%worse than usual
B6 371 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 18:35 FLL 21:32 38% 18% 1.9% 52%
AA 1174 American Flight history → JFK 18:50 MIA 22:22 38% 12% 2.1% 74%worse than usual
AA 845 American LGA 19:29 MIA 22:24 38% 14% 2.1% no record
UA 435 United EWR 19:27 FLL 22:19 39% 14% 1.4% no record
B6 1201 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 15:54 FLL 19:04 39% 15% 1.8% 77%worse than usual
AA 2525 American LGA 16:15 MIA 19:16 39% 13% 2.0% no record
B6 571 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 20:50 FLL 23:59 40% 17% 1.9% 56%
AA 3135 American Flight history → LGA 16:58 MIA 19:54 40% 14% 2.3% 63%
AA 3088 American Flight history → LGA 18:46 MIA 22:00 40% 14% 2.5% 35%
B6 1801 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 17:42 FLL 20:43 41% 15% 2.0% 65%
AA 2228 American JFK 16:18 MIA 19:27 42% 11% 1.7% no record
B6 685 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 15:25 FLL 18:27 44% 18% 2.1% 42%
UA 791 United EWR 20:21 MIA 23:14 46% 20% 1.8% no record
UA 1498 United EWR 15:51 MIA 19:07 46% 17% 1.8% no record
AA 642 American JFK 14:48 MIA 17:45 49% 13% 3.3% no record
AA 2603 American Flight history → JFK 17:45 MIA 20:38 50% 12% 1.8% 66%worse than usual
AA 3016 American EWR 18:32 MIA 21:26 52% 22% 3.0% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON