tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2412 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2412 Southwest OAK 06:02 ABQ 09:45 3% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3963 Southwest OAK 19:20 ABQ 22:42 33% 9% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest 2h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 5h 42m 97% 75%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 17:05 → LAS 18:44WN 2374 2h 26m Las Vegas LAS 21:10 → ABQ 23:48WN 2064 5h 43m 100% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest 48m Salt Lake City SLC 20:45 → ABQ 22:30DL 3729 · flown by SkyWest 4h 25m 57% 45%
AlaskaDetails → OAK 06:57 → SEA 09:00AS 705 50m Seattle SEA 09:50 → ABQ 13:53AS 327 5h 56m 55% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON