tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3158 at 05:30, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3158 Southwest OAK 05:30 AUS 11:01 7% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon 1h 01m Portland PDX 10:30 → AUS 16:38AS 540 6h 46m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 98% 77%
SouthwestDetails → OAK 17:05 → LAS 18:44WN 2374 2h 31m Las Vegas LAS 21:15 → AUS 02:01 +1WN 3120 6h 56m 100% 65%
AlaskaDetails → OAK 06:57 → SEA 09:00AS 705 2h 45m Seattle SEA 11:45 → AUS 17:43AS 502 8h 46m 98% 64%
DeltaDetails → OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest 2h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728 7h 00m 98% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON