Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4001 at 11:35, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4001 Southwest	OAK 11:35	BOI 14:17	16%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Portland	PDX 10:30 → BOI 12:49AS 2089 · flown by Horizon	3h 57m	96%	92%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:02 → BOI 12:17DL 2095	5h 17m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → BOI 00:05 +1DL 2111	6h 00m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:57 → SEA 09:00AS 705	3h 56m Seattle	SEA 12:56 → BOI 15:25AS 467	7h 28m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:37 → BOI 17:51DL 2920	4h 21m	91%	69%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:49 → SAN 08:25AS 2288 · flown by Horizon	2h 05m San Diego	SAN 10:30 → BOI 13:46AS 2341 · flown by Horizon	5h 57m	98%	68%
Southwest Details →	OAK 17:05 → LAS 18:44WN 2374	3h 51m Las Vegas	LAS 22:35 → BOI 01:26 +1WN 2506	7h 21m	100%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	53m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:50 → BOI 22:04DL 4446 · flown by SkyWest	3h 59m	64%	50%
Alaska Details →	OAK 19:13 → PDX 20:50AS 2096 · flown by Horizon	49m Portland	PDX 21:39 → BOI 00:01 +1AS 447	3h 48m	24%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON