Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3152 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 3152 OAK 07:25 → BUR 08:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3167 OAK 20:21 → BUR 21:49 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3152 Southwest	OAK 07:25	BUR 08:52	5%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 3153 Southwest	OAK 08:43	BUR 10:10	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 1156 Southwest	OAK 12:58	BUR 14:25	18%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 3633 Southwest	OAK 11:58	BUR 13:23	18%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 3964 Southwest	OAK 16:05	BUR 17:33	29%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 1816 Southwest	OAK 21:02	BUR 22:34	29%	12%	0.9%	no record
WN 3157 Southwest	OAK 18:12	BUR 19:40	32%	12%	1.1%	no record
WN 3167 Southwest	OAK 20:21	BUR 21:49	35%	12%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON