Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3160 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 3160 OAK 06:10 → DEN 09:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1511 OAK 14:35 → DEN 18:03 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3160 Southwest	OAK 06:10	DEN 09:39	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1598 Southwest	OAK 09:05	DEN 12:38	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3164 Southwest	OAK 21:25	DEN 00:55	33%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 3163 Southwest	OAK 17:25	DEN 20:53	46%	14%	0.6%	no record
WN 1511 Southwest	OAK 14:35	DEN 18:03	48%	13%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON