Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:05, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	3h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	9h 55m	99%	69%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	7h 49m	98%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:57 → SEA 09:00AS 705	58m Seattle	SEA 09:58 → EWR 17:58AS 292	8h 01m	74%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON