Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 925 at 15:40, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 925 Southwest	OAK 15:40	GEG 17:47	24%	8%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Portland	PDX 10:30 → GEG 11:45AS 250	3h 53m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452	6h 12m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → GEG 23:55DL 1466	6h 50m	98%	72%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:57 → SEA 09:00AS 705	2h 42m Seattle	SEA 11:42 → GEG 12:51AS 454	5h 54m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → GEG 18:17DL 1219	5h 47m	97%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:57 → SEA 09:00AS 705	55m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → GEG 11:00AS 2200 · flown by Horizon	4h 03m	71%	63%
Alaska Details →	OAK 19:13 → PDX 20:50AS 2096 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 21:50 → GEG 22:59AS 1356	3h 46m	32%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON