Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 847 OAK 08:25 → HNL 10:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 808 OAK 11:22 → HNL 14:01 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 847 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 08:25	HNL 10:59	14%	4%	0.8%	87%
AS 94 Alaska	OAK 13:57	HNL 16:21	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 808 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 11:22	HNL 14:01	19%	5%	0.6%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	OAK 07:00 → OGG 09:17AS 923	58m Kahului	OGG 10:15 → HNL 11:08AS 1415	7h 08m	89%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON