Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1537 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 1537 OAK 06:05 → LAS 07:41 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2374 OAK 17:05 → LAS 18:44 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1537 Southwest	OAK 06:05	LAS 07:41	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4395 Southwest	OAK 07:05	LAS 08:44	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1004 Southwest	OAK 09:37	LAS 11:16	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2046 Frontier	OAK 10:10	LAS 11:56	22%	10%	2.2%	no record
WN 3231 Southwest	OAK 11:07	LAS 12:46	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2306 Southwest	OAK 12:22	LAS 13:58	35%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 1879 Southwest	OAK 22:50	LAS 00:27	36%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 4524 Southwest	OAK 14:34	LAS 16:10	39%	13%	0.6%	no record
F9 3838 Frontier	OAK 18:44	LAS 20:30	42%	25%	2.6%	no record
WN 3170 Southwest	OAK 21:49	LAS 23:29	43%	15%	0.6%	no record
WN 2453 Southwest	OAK 16:14	LAS 17:53	45%	17%	0.6%	no record
WN 2374 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 17:05	LAS 18:44	47%	17%	0.6%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON