Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3107 Southwest	OAK 05:10	MDW 11:17	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3180 Southwest	OAK 00:05	MDW 06:05	8%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 17:05 → LAS 18:44WN 2374	1h 01m Las Vegas	LAS 19:45 → MDW 01:16 +1WN 3338	6h 11m	56%	34%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON