tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:25, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 923 Alaska Flight history → OAK 07:00 OGG 09:17 8% 3% 0.6% 97%
WN 3181 Southwest OAK 13:56 OGG 16:33 21% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → OAK 11:22 → HNL 14:01WN 808 3h 26m Honolulu HNL 17:27 → OGG 18:23WN 1983 10h 01m 99% 92%
AlaskaDetails → OAK 08:25 → HNL 10:59AS 847 3h 52m Honolulu HNL 14:51 → OGG 15:45AS 1136 10h 20m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → OAK 06:30 → SLC 09:27DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest 2h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 10h 38m 97% 70%
AlaskaDetails → OAK 10:34 → LIH 13:12AS 967 1h 18m Lihue LIH 14:30 → OGG 15:19AS 1260 7h 45m 97% 69%
AlaskaDetails → OAK 06:56 → SEA 08:58AS 705 1h 17m Seattle SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929 9h 23m 90% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON