Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 06:57, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 06:57 → SEA 09:00AS 705	2h 56m Seattle	SEA 11:56 → ORD 17:50AS 579	8h 53m	98%	55%
Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	1h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413	6h 59m	96%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OAK 20:30 → SEA 22:40AS 1359	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 23:41 → ORD 05:41 +1AS 285	7h 11m	66%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON