Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3188 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 3188 OAK 06:35 → PHX 08:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2431 OAK 21:12 → PHX 23:13 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3188 Southwest	OAK 06:35	PHX 08:40	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 275 Southwest	OAK 09:26	PHX 11:31	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 334 Southwest	OAK 11:41	PHX 13:46	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3191 Southwest	OAK 15:02	PHX 17:03	30%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 4949 Southwest	OAK 18:50	PHX 20:51	36%	15%	0.6%	no record
WN 2431 Southwest	OAK 21:12	PHX 23:13	39%	15%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON