Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3683 at 16:55, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3683 Southwest	OAK 16:55	PSP 18:33	36%	11%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest	5h 41m	98%	89%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:57 → SEA 09:00AS 705	1h 26m Seattle	SEA 10:26 → PSP 13:08AS 457	6h 11m	93%	68%
Southwest Details →	OAK 17:05 → LAS 18:44WN 2374	3h 51m Las Vegas	LAS 22:35 → PSP 23:43WN 2627	6h 38m	100%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON