Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3194 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 3194 OAK 06:00 → SAN 07:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4492 OAK 16:32 → SAN 18:12 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3194 Southwest	OAK 06:00	SAN 07:42	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1178 Southwest	OAK 07:35	SAN 09:16	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4944 Southwest	OAK 08:50	SAN 10:31	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3406 Southwest	OAK 10:25	SAN 12:06	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
OO 3050 SkyWest	OAK 15:16	SAN 17:02	30%	12%	0.9%	no record
WN 2999 Southwest	OAK 22:30	SAN 00:11	35%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 3669 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 14:00	SAN 15:43	37%	10%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
WN 756 Southwest	OAK 14:55	SAN 16:36	37%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 3200 Southwest	OAK 20:31	SAN 22:10	42%	15%	0.7%	no record
WN 1649 Southwest	OAK 17:15	SAN 18:58	43%	15%	0.7%	no record
WN 4492 Southwest	OAK 16:32	SAN 18:12	44%	15%	0.7%	no record
AS 2288 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 06:49	SAN 08:25	4%	2%	7.7%	96%
AS 2229 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 20:10	SAN 21:47	46%	6%	2.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON