Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2568 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 2568 OAK 05:40 → SEA 07:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 889 OAK 21:20 → SEA 23:24 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2568 Southwest	OAK 05:40	SEA 07:44	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 705 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 06:57	SEA 09:00	21%	3%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
WN 3203 Southwest	OAK 12:25	SEA 14:30	33%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 1359 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 20:30	SEA 22:40	36%	10%	0.9%	74%
AS 536 Alaska	OAK 12:16	SEA 14:17	37%	6%	1.1%	no record
WN 889 Southwest	OAK 21:20	SEA 23:24	43%	15%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON