Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 4061 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 4061 OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 2570 OAK 13:25 → SLC 16:16 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4061 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 06:00	SLC 08:55	5%	3%	0.6%	97%
DL 4134 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 12:30	SLC 15:22	13%	5%	0.8%	93%
DL 3903 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 17:05	SLC 19:57	24%	6%	1.5%	92%worse than usual
WN 2570 Southwest	OAK 13:25	SLC 16:16	27%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON