Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3204 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 3204 OAK 07:05 → SNA 08:37 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3209 OAK 17:16 → SNA 18:54 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3204 Southwest	OAK 07:05	SNA 08:37	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2818 Southwest	OAK 08:13	SNA 09:45	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3207 Southwest	OAK 10:11	SNA 11:43	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3210 Southwest	OAK 12:46	SNA 14:24	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3211 Southwest	OAK 21:05	SNA 22:40	21%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3178 Southwest	OAK 18:46	SNA 20:19	27%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 3209 Southwest	OAK 17:16	SNA 18:54	27%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON