Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 116 American Flight history →	OGG 17:46	DFW 06:00	24%	9%	0.9%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 5 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	1h 30m San Francisco	SFO 16:39 → DFW 22:19UA 1336	10h 09m	98%	67%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	2h 15m Seattle	SEA 17:57 → DFW 23:46AS 542	11h 46m	98%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 00:09 → SAN 08:16AS 484	52m San Diego	SAN 09:08 → DFW 14:10AS 545	9h 01m	70%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON