Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3213 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3213 OGG 07:20 → HNL 08:16 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1125 OGG 13:48 → HNL 14:42 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3213 Southwest	OGG 07:20	HNL 08:16	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3214 Southwest	OGG 09:50	HNL 10:45	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3215 Southwest	OGG 12:00	HNL 12:55	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3219 Southwest	OGG 19:02	HNL 19:57	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3218 Southwest	OGG 17:32	HNL 18:27	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3217 Southwest	OGG 15:49	HNL 16:44	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1035 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 08:15	HNL 08:54	11%	2%	1.2%	90%
AS 1015 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 05:53	HNL 06:47	12%	3%	1.3%	86%
WN 3216 Southwest	OGG 13:50	HNL 14:45	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1055 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 09:18	HNL 09:58	13%	2%	1.1%	91%
AS 1085 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 11:22	HNL 12:16	15%	3%	1.1%	84%
AS 1045 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 08:41	HNL 09:20	15%	2%	1.1%	87%
AS 1415 Alaska	OGG 10:15	HNL 11:08	19%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 1175 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 18:35	HNL 19:29	19%	4%	1.2%	69%
AS 1435 Alaska	OGG 17:45	HNL 18:38	19%	5%	1.2%	no record
AS 1075 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:06	HNL 10:48	19%	3%	1.1%	80%
AS 1185 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 19:43	HNL 20:22	21%	5%	1.2%	74%
AS 1095 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:07	HNL 13:01	21%	4%	1.1%	77%
AS 1425 Alaska	OGG 14:09	HNL 15:02	21%	5%	1.1%	no record
AS 203 Alaska	OGG 13:20	HNL 14:54	22%	5%	1.1%	no record
AS 1135 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 14:34	HNL 15:28	23%	6%	1.2%	67%
AS 1155 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:59	HNL 16:53	23%	5%	1.2%	68%
AS 1165 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 16:29	HNL 17:23	23%	6%	0.9%	65%
AS 1195 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 20:47	HNL 21:26	23%	5%	1.1%	73%
AS 1145 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:04	HNL 15:45	24%	5%	1.1%	65%
AS 1105 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:02	HNL 13:56	25%	4%	1.1%	84%
AS 1125 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:48	HNL 14:42	26%	5%	1.1%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON