tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 1129 at 17:39, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1129 Alaska Flight history → OGG 17:39 ITO 18:17 21% 6% 0.8% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hilo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → OGG 05:53 → HNL 06:47AS 1015 3h 14m Honolulu HNL 10:01 → ITO 10:55AS 1032 5h 02m 100% 85%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045 1h 59m Honolulu HNL 11:19 → ITO 12:28AS 1042 3h 47m 99% 84%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 10:06 → HNL 10:48AS 1075 3h 29m Honolulu HNL 14:17 → ITO 15:13AS 1072 5h 07m 99% 78%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 16:29 → HNL 17:23AS 1165 3h 41m Honolulu HNL 21:04 → ITO 22:13AS 1132 5h 44m 100% 78%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 09:18 → HNL 09:58AS 1055 3h 33m Honolulu HNL 13:31 → ITO 14:27AS 1062 5h 09m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 15:04 → HNL 15:45AS 1145 3h 36m Honolulu HNL 19:21 → ITO 20:30AS 1122 5h 26m 100% 77%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 08:15 → HNL 08:54AS 1035 3h 24m Honolulu HNL 12:18 → ITO 13:14AS 1052 4h 59m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 12:07 → HNL 13:01AS 1095 3h 32m Honolulu HNL 16:33 → ITO 17:27AS 1092 5h 20m 100% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → OGG 15:04 → HNL 15:45AS 1145 48m Honolulu HNL 16:33 → ITO 17:27AS 1092 2h 23m 60% 46%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 16:29 → HNL 17:23AS 1165 46m Honolulu HNL 18:09 → ITO 19:18AS 1112 2h 49m 55% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON