Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 1030 OGG 10:33 → KOA 11:26 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AS 1250 OGG 15:54 → KOA 16:28 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1030 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:33	KOA 11:26	10%	3%	0.6%	77%
WN 3166 Southwest	OGG 13:35	KOA 14:30	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
9X 503 Southern Airways Express	OGG 17:00	KOA 18:09	15%	4%	1.3%	no record
AS 1140 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 14:03	KOA 14:39	18%	4%	0.6%	72%
AS 1250 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:54	KOA 16:28	18%	4%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON