Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 05:53, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3221 Southwest	OGG 20:45	LAS 05:08	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 932 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:36	LAS 19:10	19%	5%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 18:35 → HNL 19:29AS 1175	3h 51m Honolulu	HNL 23:20 → LAS 08:03 +1AS 808	10h 28m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	OGG 05:53 → HNL 06:47AS 1015	1h 08m Honolulu	HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806	7h 46m	93%	69%
Alaska Details →	OGG 09:18 → HNL 09:58AS 1055	3h 27m Honolulu	HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10AS 876	9h 52m	99%	68%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	2h 51m San Francisco	SFO 22:50 → LAS 00:45 +1UA 2400	9h 45m	99%	67%
United Details →	OGG 13:04 → LAX 21:21UA 418	1h 38m Los Angeles	LAX 22:59 → LAS 00:21 +1UA 1546	8h 17m	94%	61%
Alaska Details →	OGG 00:09 → SAN 08:16AS 484	2h 45m San Diego	SAN 11:01 → LAS 12:26AS 2068 · flown by Horizon	9h 17m	98%	61%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	3h 57m San Francisco	SFO 19:06 → LAS 21:04UA 1995	10h 54m	98%	61%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 18:23 → LAS 20:50AS 523	10h 50m	99%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON